In January 2010, in his first appearance after the State of the Union address, President Obama announced $8B in stimulus funds to support the implementation of high-speed rail in the United States. In May of this year, the US Department of Transportation announced the first payments to States. In October, another $2.4B was awarded by the USDOT "for planning and construction of intercity passenger rail service."
Some may compare Obama's vision here to those of Eisenhower (the interstate highway system) and John Kennedy (the US space program). Obama has obviously placed in front of the United States people a BHAG - a Big, Harry, Audacious Goal. Before we jump in head first out of pride, maybe we should think a bit about the goal itself, and the end-state we seek to reach.
Here's the proposed high-speed rail plan:
Interesting to me is the fact that these "corridors" have been in development and planned since starting in 1991. For the history of the high speed corridors, click here.
Personally, what I see in the map above is a series of discrete and separate rail systems that do not fully interconnect. The viability of these rail systems to act as an alternative transportation method for Americans looks extremely limited. Not only are only a small portion of the country's cities served by the system above, the connectivity between them is missing as well.
Compare the above to the availability of commercial air travel (image below), and you can see how served locations (rail) will be extremely few relative to locations served by air.
Several changes in state government could drastically impact the administration's plan around high-speed rail. Leaders in Ohio, Wisconsin and Florida have all either already made strong statements about the fact that they do not support the President's high-speed rail plans (and will not take federal funds), or have at least questioned the wisdom of moving forward. Other states (like New York) stand ready to accept their funds, should they refuse them.
Something to consider as well is that the funds coming from the federal government do not cover the total expense required to put these systems in place, so hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars will need to be invested by state and local governments in order to get these things done. With most states already in financial crisis mode, it seems unlikely states will be able to come up with the money.
I did a little math, and I estimate the time involved in traveling from our home in the Louisville area to visit our family in Cincinnati (connected on the rail map above through Indianapolis) would take at least 2.5 hours on the high-speed train lines, including an assumed 30 minute connection. That estimate doesn't include local public transport (bus) to/from the train stations and our initial starting point and final destination. Driving time would be approximately the same (2.5 hours).
I also did some basic cost comparisons. Obviously, since this system doesn't exist yet, fares cannot be predicted. However, I estimated cost for our family to travel this route as being the same as a Greyhound bus trip. At $240 round trip for our family of 5, it is obviously more than the $50-60 in gasoline we would spend driving our own vehicle direct.
So, high speed rail would likely save no time and likely cost more than driving ourselves (gas for our own vehicle, versus ticket cost, even at Greyhound equivalent fares) to our most common destination.
US high-speed rail may come to pass, but until it is fully interconnected, much more developed and mature than the current map/plan, and offered at a reasonable cost that makes it less expensive than both personal vehicle and commercial airfare, it will have limited viability as a true alternative mode of transportation. I understand the sexy appeal (though likely a novelty for most) of whisking across the countryside on rails, but with less convenience (than air travel) and more cost (than driving a personal vehicle), it certainly doesn't seem it will challenge existing travel infrastructures anytime in the next several decades, or even in my lifetime.
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